There is two kind of Northern lights prediction: statistical and real-time ones. The former are based on a large amount of observations of Northern lights at different latitudes during several years. From these statistics we can say what is the probability of the occurrence of Northern lights during the course of year.

According to the statistics compiled by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, three nights out of four are illuminated by Northern lights in Northern Lapland (Kilpisjärvi-Utsjoki area) providing that the sky is free enough from clouds. On the coast of the Arctic Ocean in North Norway (e.g. in Tromsö) one can see Northern lights almost every night. Even in South Finland, say Helsinki, one can see them but much more seldom; in Helsinki only one night per month.

Nowcasts and short-term forecasts are based on a space-weather monitoring system either by ground-based devices or satellites watching the space-weather conditions around the Earth. When the monitoring devices (e.g., magnetometers or particle detectors in a satellite) show certain deviations from the normal situation, one can expect that a space weather storm is approaching in a few hours.

The occurrence of auroras depends on the latitude of the observer. The Northern Lights form an oval band around the geomagnetic poles of the Earth. At a distance about 2500 km from these poles, the probability for seeing auroras is almost 100 %.

The northern parts of Fennoscandia belong to the maximum auroral zone. In the coast of Ice Sea in North-Norway one can see auroras almost every night when the sky is clear enough. When moving southwards, the frequency of auroras decreases. In Sodankylä every second night is an auroral night, in Helsinki once per month. When the Earth's magnetic field is very disturbed, the auroras can spread all over Europe.

The best time to see auroras is between 9 p.m. - 1 a.m. local time. The best months are February - March and September - October. During summer months you cannot see aurora due to light nights.

There is neither harm nor benefit of the Northern Lights. They are nature's beautiful light-show (free of charge!) for people living in northern latitudes.